Armenia – Azerbaijan conflict

2020 has been an eventful year and if we had thought that it could not have been worse, it has again  surprised us. Two countries in western Asia, Armenia and Azerbaijan are in full blow war since September 27th and till now there has been no sign of abating. Nagorno-Karabakh a 4400 sq.km landlocked region, claimed by both the countries is the center of this conflict. Though internationally this land locked region is recognized to be part of Azerbaijan, but is populated by people of Armenians origin.

Now, coming to the background of this conflict, like most of the arm conflicts this one too has multiple facets to look into.

Religious and Historical – Armenia was historically a Christian dominated region whereas Azerbaijan a Shia Muslim. In fact, Azerbaijan is the second largest Shia population after Iran. in fact, that is one reason for its close proximity with Iran which is its’ neighbor in southern region and share naval border over Caspian Sea.

Ottomans in 1915 started pushing Armenians to its eastern part of its territory and were subjugated them to mass murder and ethnics cleansing. Per records more than 1.5 million Armenians were killed systemically during this period. This is one of the bloodiest events in this region and referred as Armenian Genocide. With the WWI coming to an end, the power of the Ottomans started to see it sunset phase. The entire region of Armenia and Azerbaijan became part of Soviet Union in 1919. Note, the present-day conflicted region of Nagorno-Karabakh was part of Azerbaijan at that time too and demographically it was mostly populated by Armenians (orthodox Christians). They never felt compatible to the Azeri social structures. Soviet been an atheist republic religious identity had no importance, and thus the religious differences were always muzzled. However, with the weakening of the Soviet power rift lines around the religion started to crop up. Russian became an orthodox Christian state with Soviet fall. And like wise other fragments of USSR, came up on the basis of their religious belief in 1990s. And this was the first time, the long-subjugated region of Nagorno-Karabakh started to raise voice to separate away from Azerbaijan. There were referendums conducted. In the first one, Nagorno-Karabakh junta decided to declare itself as an independent nation. This was not acceptable to both Armenian and Azerbaijan. In the second one, it was decided to be part of Armenia. This result was not accepted by Azerbaijan and gave rise to the first major war in 1992 in which more than twenty thousand people died. The cease-fire was brokered by Russians, but it was not a sustainable one.

Geographical – With the rise in Turkey’s power, especially under the current President Erdogan which is strongly determined to recreate the glory of Ottoman’s empire see Russians has its adversary. Already it is in proxy war with Russian in Syria and Lebanon. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is yet another theater of proxy war for these two regional powers. Turkey has openly declared its support for Azerbaijan and it is reported to have been providing Intel support and drone power to Azerbaijan. Along with this, it is reported that many of Turkey’s mercenaries are been transferred from Syria and Lebanon to find the Azerbaijan’s war.  

Oil – Azerbaijan is major exporter of natural gas and acts as an alternative to Russia for the European countries. The oil and gas pipeline from Azerbaijan enter Europe via Turkey. Hence stability and control on this region is also a look out for Europeans too.

In the instability during a horrific Pandemic is the worst that human kind had to handle. Major powers around the region should restrain itself from making this another theater for Proxy war. Rather play a role to mediate and call for immediate cease fire.